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QLD v NSW
Lang Park, Brisbane
Wednesday July eleventh
NSW: 1 James Tedesco, 2 Tom Trbojevic, 3 Latrell Mitchell, 4 James Roberts, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 James Maloney, 7 Nathan Cleary, 8 David Klemmer, 9 Damien Cook dinner, 10 Paul Vaughan, 11 Boyd Cordner (c), 12 Tyson Frizell, 13 Jack de Belin.
Interchange: 14 Tariq Sims, 15 Jake Trbojevic, 16 Angus Crichton, 17 Tyrone Peachey. 18th man: Ryan James
QLD: 1 Billy Slater (c), 2 Valentine Holmes, 3 Dane Gagai, 4 Will Chambers, 5 Corey Oates, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Daly Cherry-Evans, 8 Jai Arrow, 9 Andrew McCullough, 10 Josh Papalii, 11 Gavin Cooper, 12 Felise Kaufusi, 13 Josh McGuire.
Interchange: 14 Ben Hunt, 15 Jarrod Wallace, 16 Coen Hess, 17 Tim Glasby
Recreation 3 of the 2018 Collection would be the last sport for Qld Fullback Billy Slater and the fifty fifth match to be performed on the dwelling of Rugby League. Queensland holds a 34-20 all time benefit on the floor and hasn’t been crushed in Recreation 3 of a Collection at Suncorp since 2009. There have been 17 “useless rubbers” all through the 36 Collection, with Queensland profitable 10 of these, whereas they’ve gained 7 of 12 useless rubbers at Suncorp. When the ultimate sport of a Collection has been performed at Suncorp Stadium and the Blues have an unassailable 2-0 lead, Queensland has gained the ultimate match on 5 of seven events. NSW will probably be aiming for a “blue rinse” for the first time since 2000, whereas will probably be simply the third time in historical past and the first time since 1996 that they’ve finished it in Recreation 3 at Suncorp Stadium.
AVERAGE GAME TOTAL AT SUNCORP STADIUM
In Recreation 3 of a Collection there are typically extra factors of supply with the sport whole averaging 36.92 and whereas the typical sport whole at Suncorp Stadium is 33.6, Recreation 3 on the floor has a median of 37.2, with solely 2 of the final 9 totalling lower than 40. Useless rubbers on the floor common simply over 35, with 4 of the final 6 totalling 40 of extra.
Factors Vary 9-20, 10 occasions, however solely as soon as this century and solely twice in Recreation 3 21-30, 11 occasions, 6 of which have been sport 3, together with 4 useless rubbers 31-40, 19 occasions, 6 occasions in sport 3, 5 of which have been useless rubbers 41 or extra, 14 occasions, 8 of which have been in Recreation 3.
Since 2006 there was 16 Origin matches performed at Suncorp Stadium and solely on 6 events from these 16 matches has the first strive been scored previous to the eighth minute, whereas in 4 of the final 5 it’s been past the 14th minute. The marketplace for 8 minutes or later is fairly quick at round $1.67, whilst you can stand up to $1.95 for after 10 minutes and 30 seconds
MARGINS AT SUNCORP
Of the 54 matches performed on the floor, 22 (40.7%) have been determined by a margin of 13+, with practically half of these occurring in Recreation 3. The final 16 at Suncorp have had a median profitable margin of 17.1, with 5 of the final 7 having been by 16 or extra. Just one of the final 7 on the floor in Recreation 3 of a Collection has been determined by a single determine rating.
HTFT at SUNCORP
The half time chief has gained 43 of 51 video games (84%) QLD has led 26 occasions and solely as soon as have they been run down (96%) NSW has led 25 occasions and gone on to win 18 of these (72%)
So we come to a useless rubber sport with QLD to host and Billy Slater’s final rep outing.
QLD have had an disagreeable sequence, coming into 2018 with the important thing retirements of Thurston and Cronk, then the all however final hour retirement of Cameron Smith and sport 1 damage out for Billy Slater. They’ve then bounced off the partitions of disappointment since with coaching mishaps and additional damage points and now entrance as much as sport 3 with no Inglis, new star Ponga, Morgan, Napa and doubtless the thinnest wanting Origin line up that they’ve fielded in latest reminiscence. At 0-2 they’ll now be attempting to save lots of face and salvage one thing from the wreck.
Then again NSW look to have had a dream run and coach Fittler now appears like he all however walks on water. He properly cleared the slate and began afresh with a younger record who a) he might affect and work with (and would hear) and b) rid them of useless wooden and previous baggage, he has additionally taken a deliberate and optimistic strategy of assault play the place in any respect doable and importantly been blessed with solely the 1 key damage out and profitable stability. Generally it appears simple.
The venue and it being a useless rubber sport are main components. This venue (Lang Park – Suncorp Stadium) is often a a lot drier floor than Homebush and way more conducive to agency footing attacking play, and the stats do nothing however help this with 7 of the final 10 video games have offering 40 or extra factors and whereas uncommon the final two useless rubber video games have additionally offered 40 or extra factors. I’m quietly assured with an entire vary of things coming collectively that we must always once more see an open attacking sport and loads of factors.
And what for QLD? The lack of Inglis, Morgan and Ponga definitely blunts their attacking talent an penetration. Hunt was probably about to be dropped however now will get a reprieve however is moved to the bench to play the utility position and Cherry-Evans after a very long time missed will get a recall to play #7. My concern although is with the QLD ahead line up, they’ve a center rotation reliant on Wallace, Glasby, McGuire and Arrow which has constantly misplaced the yardage battle whereas their edge forwards (Cooper, Kaufusi) bench of Papalii and Hess has had little influence, particularly with any ball play or line break. Certain they’re head down bottom up and workman like, however QLD’s assault wants greater than that, they want some play with the ball and at the least 4 tries to be an opportunity of profitable this end result. In sport two they’d an apparent change in techniques in being ready to shift the ball off a operating ahead (usually McGuire) on early performs, however in addition they want some play via the road and extra off load work and until they modify issues up very in a different way its arduous to see the place this comes from.
The plain query on NSW is the place is their head and starvation into this? They’ve gained the sequence, is that now sufficient? Is Fittler content material that sufficient has been achieved? The early indicators are that they need a 3-0 end result, they’ve gone about their prep with an identical focus to video games 1 and a couple of and the coach has been ready to drop a participant of a win (and sequence win) to ship a transparent message that he’s about outcomes and efficiency. From the outset Fittler has needed a optimistic strategy to their assault, he’s needed yardage, strikes out of dummy half, some off load and second section play and importantly some room for his 7, 6 and 1 to play with, assault and or arrange both edge with ball for Mitchell or Roberts to make use of. He has additionally made it identified that they’ve been a bit clunky with a few of this assault intent and that there’s extra to come back – certainly right into a sport the place the strain is much less on the ultimate end result we must always see some extra relaxed strategy. In the event that they strike and begin to click on they’ve factors in them.
QLD look to me to be on the ropes and virtually out for the rely. With one factor and one other it’s been a troublesome sequence, retirements, key outs and accidents have taken a toll. They play at dwelling which is able to assist, as will the Billy Slater ship off, however is all of it sufficient for them to select themselves up with one last profitable effort? I’m eager on NSW, every thing appears all however made to order they usually on the up with their better of the sequence nonetheless to come back. A contemporary optimistic strategy, a younger record, stability and continuity with solely the one damage out throughout the sequence and combos and understand how that needs to be constructing. They’ve confidence, and on the again of getting already gained the sequence the have some perception. There appears loads of ticks round what they’re doing and the way its all come collectively.
Recreation one noticed a 24-14 scoreline on a slippery floor and for mine NSW might effectively have gained with much more consolation. Recreation two was a typical Sydney sport, tight, low scoring, NSW bought dwelling by 4. Recreation 3 appears very typical of what we’d anticipate in Brisbane, plus now we have a useless rubber sport. Cook dinner, Tedesco and Tom Trbojevic via the center, offload ball off Jake Trbojevic, room for the halves to play after which some clear ball and room to both edge for Roberts or Mitchell. The attacking benefit ought to win out right here, I like NSW and suppose they’ll go on with it now, suppose they may effectively put their foot down with a very good rating on the again of plenty of assault and open play (from either side), a excessive scoring sport with loads of factors.
Finest Wager Choice: NSW -3.5 $1.90
Subsequent Finest Choice: QLD-NSW whole factors over 36.5 $1.90
Unique Play: NSW 13+ $3.50
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