AFL Statsman gives AFL Ideas Previews Sports activities Betting content material every week for our Studying The Play AFL subscribers.
2017: Revenue +11.4 items | 29 winners / 48 bets | strike fee 60.4%
2014-2017: Revenue +73.63 items | 137 winners / 233 bets | strike fee 58.8%
AFL Finals Week 3 2017 Advisable Wager Checklist
Wager 0.5 items Adelaide-Geelong underneath 170.5 $1.88 William Hill
BB – Signifies Greatest Wager
Market Odds Comparability – a fast hyperlink to help with the obtainable odds throughout many doable suppliers – afl-odds-comparisons
Staking: The beneficial items wager is indicated subsequent to every wager within the above wager listing. The bottom wager is 1 to five items (and can be a mirrored image of confidence, FAQ – Why do you discuss and wager in items? > solutions right here).
We recognise that sports activities betting markets are topic to fluctuation and beneficial positions can on events transfer rapidly. We make sure that on the time of publication our beneficial bets can be found with at the least two main Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everybody has a possibility to play. If a market has moved in step with any beneficial wager we might nonetheless advise that long run revenue can nonetheless be achieved by betting a line that has firmed as much as two factors for the reason that wager advice (however concentrate on key quantity positions). Within the uncommon occasion that each one obtainable strains have firmed greater than two factors past our advice after publication we might counsel both acquiring a place with a choose your individual line choice is out there right down to $1.80 or not betting.
Particular person Recreation Ideas
Adelaide v Geelong
Adelaide play simply their second recreation in 26 days and there can be a lot curiosity in whether or not they can develop into the primary Qualifying Ultimate winner to win via to the Grand Ultimate after two byes in three weeks. The Crows have misplaced two of their previous three matches after the mid-season bye together with a 14 level loss to Hawthorn at house after this season’s bye. I’ve some query marks about them straight after the bye. I’ve additionally had nagging doubts all season in regards to the Crows toughness, capability to win a scrap and alter to Sloane being tagged out of the sport. The time has come for them to reply that query and I feel they’ll be discovered wanting. They’re up in opposition to an opponent that has received three of the final 4 matches face to face. The match that Geelong misplaced earlier this yr, noticed the Cats fall 22 factors behind within the first quarter after a foul begin earlier than breaking even the remainder of the best way – I nonetheless assume the resurgent Cats have a psychological edge right here. Sturdy lean in the direction of the Cats masking a line of round three targets.
I’m eager to again the arm wrestle right here with the final 4 clashes yielding 101, 170, 140 and 170 factors. I anticipate the match to be performed on Geelong’s phrases and their final 5 video games have yielded 137, 131, 162, 129 and 146 factors. For good measure, the Cats have gone underneath in 21 of 32 away video games since 2015. The market agrees and there have been nibbles of assist for the underneath play with the road transferring one level in the direction of the underneath with some bookies within the final 24 hours.
Wager 0.5 items Adelaide-Geelong underneath 170.5 $1.88 William Hill
Stats That Matter
AFL Statsman gives the important thing stats and background that he has thought of throughout these remaining video games every week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.
Use these stats to plan your a number of bets, have just a little flutter for curiosity’s sake and keep nicely away from hazard matches!
Richmond v GWS
Like Adelaide, Richmond have to beat two byes in three weeks, however they’re higher positioned than the Crows to win via to the large dance. They’re up in opposition to GWS who’ve a dismal document in opposition to high eight sides interstate and have received simply one among 11 video games on the G. Additional, the Giants performed only one match on the G this season – they’re nonetheless are comparatively younger squad and have a problem in entrance of them to adapt to the extensive wings of the MCG, which is one thing that I feel has been underestimated by most pundits. I’ve a lean in the direction of Richmond masking.
I’ve a powerful lean in the direction of the underneath within the complete match rating betting. Richmond have been the premier underneath group this season going underneath in 17 of 23 matches whereas GWS have gone underneath in 16 of their final 24 away matches. The final 5 face to face clashes have yielded 109, 153, 134, 147 and 157. If Richmond replicate the ferocious depth they confirmed in opposition to Geelong final begin, then its exhausting to see this match going over the road, particularly if some mild rain arrives. I’ll monitor the market over the following 24 hours to see if a wager could be beneficial.
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AFL Ideas Previews Sports activities Betting 2017
AFL Statsman gives our AFL Sports activities Previews and Betting Ideas
Having performed and adopted the sport for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical evaluation and palms on view of the AFL and now gives our subscribers along with his AFL suggestions recreation previews and beneficial AFL sports activities betting suggestions.
Statsman has a powerful sense of historical past and repeatedly quotes Spanish thinker, George Santayana in saying ‘Those that can’t bear in mind the previous are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and the right way to beat them; that is the important thing to profitable long run. He has a eager eye for kind, bias, faults and misconceptions throughout the market. Statsman beats the market as a result of he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t simply use them, he appears for angles and alternatives that others don’t see and he doesn’t imagine the hype.
Statsman is fanatical about self-discipline and abhors dangerous bets and techniques, preferring the methodical accumulation of revenue. He solely invests cash the place he has a optimistic expectation of profitable. This can be a key to profitable long run. He believes in strict cash administration. There isn’t a quick time period path to riches in sports activities betting. It’s about self-discipline and endurance.
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