AFL Statsman gives AFL Suggestions Previews Sports activities Betting content material every week for our Studying The Play AFL subscribers.
2017: Revenue +14.69 models | 20 winners / 27 bets | strike charge 74.1%
2014-2017: Revenue +76.89 models | 128 winners / 212 bets | strike charge 60.4%
2017 Outcomes File Rd13_RTP_AFL Results_2017
AFL Spherical 16 2017 Advisable Wager Listing
Wager 2 models Sydney-Gold Coast underneath 176.5 $1.91 Bet365 / $1.90 Unibet
Wager 1 unit St Kilda-Richmond underneath 166.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet
West Coast v Port Adelaide – doable guess to be confirmed
BB – Signifies Finest Wager
Market Odds Comparability – a fast hyperlink to help with the accessible odds throughout many doable suppliers – afl-odds-comparisons
Staking: The really useful models guess is indicated subsequent to every guess within the above guess checklist. The bottom guess is 1 to five models (and can also be a mirrored image of confidence, FAQ – Why do you discuss and guess in models? > solutions right here).
We recognise that sports activities betting markets are topic to fluctuation and really useful positions can on events transfer shortly. We be sure that on the time of publication our really useful bets can be found with no less than two main Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everybody has a chance to play. If a market has moved consistent with any really useful guess we’d nonetheless advise that long run revenue can nonetheless be achieved by betting a line that has firmed as much as two factors because the guess suggestion (however concentrate on key quantity positions). Within the uncommon occasion that every one accessible strains have firmed greater than two factors past our suggestion after publication we’d recommend both acquiring a place with a choose your personal line possibility is obtainable right down to $1.80 or not betting.
Particular person Recreation Suggestions
Adelaide, GWS, Essendon, Sydney, Geelong, Richmond, North Melbourne, Melbourne, West Coast
Sydney v Gold Coast
The Swans have received seven of their final eight and you’ll’t deny their momentum. I lean in direction of them to cowl however wont contact a six aim line.
I wish to be on the underneath with the Swans going underneath in 13 of their final 19 residence video games. With the Swans in ninth place, the stakes are excessive and so they can’t afford a slip up in the event that they wish to maintain strain on eighth place St Kilda who play within the match afterwards. I count on Sydney to be usually fierce and stingy in defence as has been the case within the final 8 matches the place they haven’t allowed greater than 85 factors. Their final 5 video games have yielded 135, 171, 151,126 and 156 factors whereas 4 of the Solar’s final 5 matches have yielded 175 factors or much less.
Wager 2 models Sydney-Gold Coast underneath 176.5 $1.91 Bet365 / $1.90 Unibet
St Kilda v Richmond
Nice conflict between fourth and eighth with Tigers determined to remain within the high 4 and the Saints determined to remain within the high eight following a possible win by Sydney within the earlier match. Lean in direction of Richmond grabbing the win right here by advantage of their superior 3-2 document towards the present high eight whereas Saints are simply 1-4 versus the present high eight.
Richmond’s league main 77 PPG defence has ensured that the Tigers have gone underneath in 12 of their 14 matches this season and accordingly a very low line has been set for this Etihad match. Nonetheless, with the excessive stakes, I count on likelihood of an quaint arm wrestle. The final two face to face clashes have yielded 101 and 162 factors and I count on an analogous consequence on this match.
Wager 1 unit St Kilda-Richmond underneath 166.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet
West Coast v Port Adelaide
At 9pm on Thursday evening, I had the Eagles -5.5 pencilled in as a guess. Nonetheless, there was a powerful market transfer to Port in a single day and the market has now firmed 6-8 factors in Port’s favour since Monday. I merely can’t be towards that type of market transfer and can proceed to observe the market with a view to a doable guess on the West Coast if that market will get behind the Eagles over the following 48 hours.
Since a house loss to Richmond final begin, Port have confirmed that they’re this season’s flat monitor bullies, having gone 0-5 versus the present high eight and 8-1 versus all different groups. The Eagles will profit from a number of key ins, have a sound 3-3 document towards the present high eight and have lined the road in 23 of their final 32 residence video games. They’ve additionally received three straight towards Port, all in Adelaide. I additionally word Port have lined the road in simply 6 of their final 16 day matches.
Potential guess TBA
Stats That Matter
AFL Statsman gives the important thing stats and background that he has thought-about throughout these remaining video games every week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.
Use these stats to plan your a number of bets, have a little bit flutter for curiosity’s sake and keep effectively away from hazard matches!
Adelaide v Western Bulldogs – The Canines are clearly off the tempo this 12 months and a part of the reason being they’ll’t beat the nice sides, having gone 2-5 towards the present high eight and 5-2 towards all different groups. Crows have lined 14 of their final 20 at residence and I lean in direction of them protecting on Friday evening.
Hawthorn v GWS – I lean in direction of the Giants who’ve gone 7-2 towards the groups at the moment exterior the highest eight and have lined the road in 9 of their final 13 day video games.
Collingwood v Essendon – If I had been the Collingwood brains belief, I’d be having a severe take a look at how they put together for day matches with the Pies dropping as daytime favourites to Hawthorn final week. They’ve now lined simply 10 of their final 30 day matches. I believe a lot of Essendon’s gamers who’ve been out for a 12 months have hit the wall and so they may wrestle from right here on. Slight lean to Dons in peril sport.
Brisbane v Geelong – Not so much to love about both aspect right here. Beams is a serious in for the Lions however they haven’t received again to again since Spherical 6-7 of 2015 and have solely lined 2 of their final 13 at evening. Geelong have a again to again distant away journey and have solely lined 12 of their final 38 video games as a 30.5+ favorite. Hazard sport however do have a slight lean in direction of the underneath with an enormous line set for an evening sport and the Lions defence displaying enchancment in latest weeks.
North Melbourne v Fremantle – Toss of the coin job. Freo are 4-3 versus sides exterior the highest eight this 12 months and I lean in direction of them protecting.
Carlton v Melbourne – The Dees may have a number of ins for this conflict as they search to rebound and solidify their place within the eight. With the advantage of a 9 day break, I lean in direction of the Dees right here. The road has been set very low for a day sport, even with gritty Carlton enjoying. I’m tempted to again the over however with the final 4 face to face clashes yielding, 150, 136, 133 and 139, I’ll simply again and watch.
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AFL Suggestions Previews Sports activities Betting 2017
AFL Statsman gives our AFL Sports activities Previews and Betting Suggestions
Having performed and adopted the sport for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical evaluation and fingers on view of the AFL and now gives our subscribers together with his AFL ideas sport previews and really useful AFL sports activities betting ideas.
Statsman has a powerful sense of historical past and repeatedly quotes Spanish thinker, George Santayana in saying ‘Those that can not keep in mind the previous are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and tips on how to beat them; that is the important thing to successful long run. He has a eager eye for kind, bias, faults and misconceptions inside the market. Statsman beats the market as a result of he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t simply use them, he appears for angles and alternatives that others don’t see and he doesn’t imagine the hype.
Statsman is fanatical about self-discipline and abhors dangerous bets and techniques, preferring the methodical accumulation of revenue. He solely invests cash the place he has a constructive expectation of successful. This can be a key to successful long run. He believes in strict cash administration. There isn’t any brief time period path to riches in sports activities betting. It’s about self-discipline and endurance.
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