AFL Tips

NRL Suggestions & Recreation Previews | Spherical 19 | 2021

MrG supplies our NRL Suggestions Previews and content material every week for our Studying The Play NRL subscribers. Additional particulars on our NRL providing right here

MrG’s Recreation Handicaps for this spherical

-12.5 Eels v Raiders – Robina
-9.5 Roosters v Knights – Sunshine Coast
-32.5 Cowboys v Storm – Townsville
-17.5 Rabbits v Warriors – Sunshine Coast
-17.5 Eagles v Tigers – Brisbane
-19.5 Panthers v Broncos – Brisbane
+6.5 Dragons v Titans – Robina
+7.5 Bulldogs v Sharks – Robina

Market Strikes since opening positions on Monday

opened -12.5 now -15.5 Eels v Raiders – Robina
opened -9.5 touched -11.5 now -10.5 Roosters v Knights – Sunshine Coast
opened +24.5 now +30.5 Cowboys v Storm – Townsville
opened -15.5 now -19.5 Rabbits v Warriors – Sunshine Coast
opened -16.5 now -19.5 Eagles v Tigers – Brisbane
opened -16.5 now -20.5 Panthers v Broncos – Brisbane
opened +6.5 now +5.5 Dragons v Titans – Robina
opened +12.5 now +11.5 Bulldogs v Sharks – Robina

Advisable Wager Checklist

Wager 2 models all up $2.11
Eels to win $1.18
Roosters to win $1.28
Storm -19.5 $1.40 (decide your individual line)

Wager 3.5 models Storm -24.5 $1.90 BB
Cowboys provide the weakest defence within the comp at current, Storm look effectively positioned to rattle up an enormous rating

Wager 2 models Eagles-Tigers over 50.5 $1.90
Eagles get all their weapons again this week, dry observe, arvo recreation, each groups like assault, appears factors throughout it

Wager 1.5 models Bulldogs +12.5 $1.90
Wager 0.5 unit Bulldogs $3.80
Bulldogs have been deep into or received (Dragons) 4 of final 5, Marshall-King large in, impartial floor

Wager 1.5 models all up Anytime Strive Nicho Hynes (Storm) x Tom Trbojevic (Eagles) $2.85

BB – Signifies Greatest Wager

Any long term performs which were really helpful in prior weeks can be listed on the base of this message

Particular person Recreation Suggestions

Eels, Roosters, Storm, Rabbits, Eagles, Panthers, Titans, Bulldogs

Recreation Preview Notes

-12.5 Eels v Raiders – Robina

Floor: Robina
52.5 Whole Factors (market place)

Eels with out Moses. Raiders Wighton and Savage from final week, have record of long term outs together with Horsburgh, Whitehead, Simmonsson, Nicoll-Klokstad, Lui and Scott.

At a degree beneath the highest of the desk few the Eels simply hold doing the enterprise. They may have had each excuse to place a foul one in final week, mid week relocations, keys rests and outs, lack of coaching runs and prep but they turned up, aimed up and shortly went whack and put the sport past the Titans. Season up to now they’ve had a really beneficial draw (attention-grabbing few weeks forward) however they’re dependable, get by their work and get the job completed. I believed the return of Reed Mahoney was an enormous constructive, he factors them in the correct path, performs straight and will get them direct by the mid area and that’s the place the simple yards had been and arrange all the pieces else that they then did. They get Paulo again this week, ought to have had a way more settled prep an get weakened opponent.

Raiders have shocked two weeks in a row, not solely successful but in addition choosing up away wins. However their harm toll does look to be catching up with them with at lest now 8 or 9 lacking from what can be their greatest 17 a couple of months in the past, that’s a really large gap in high quality and depth to patch up. credit score to their second half effort final week, which it was a low recreation they may effectively have rolled over simply after half time but stored turning up after which went on with the end result. Hodgson has been excellent by latest weeks along with his path and management, discovering some previous kind and confidence. I don’t like Rapana anyplace close to fullback, and the bench appears very skinny for apparent causes.

Eels to win, they’ve been effectively backed on the information of the additional Raiders outs, I used to be 12 to 14 between them and anticipate that the Eels ought to cowl that.

-9.5 Roosters v Knights – Sunshine Coast

Floor: Sunshine Coast
51.5 Whole Factors (market place)

Large ins for the Roosters with Tedesco and Taukeiaho. Key to the market place is that if Ponga performs off the again of HIA protocol and switch round. They continue to be with out key gamers Pearce, Greatest and some extra harm outs.

The Roosters are two skilled and nonetheless have that sprinkling of sophistication once they line up in opposition to these groups both on the base of the desk (just like the final two wins) of these weakened with key outs and questionable depth because the Knights are right here. The win over the Cows final week wasn’t as simple and a stroll within the park prefer it may effectively have been 9and weak opponent) however they obtained away late to a margin and 34-18 win. Their two ins this week are substantial, class and strike on the again and expertise and muscle within the center.

Knights had been effectively uncovered final week with some horrible defence in opposition to the benchmark crew, particularly their proper edge after which bench depth. With Pearce, Greatest and Daniel Saifiti lacking after which the early recreation lack of Ponga they had been fully uncovered after which bashed up. With two of these nonetheless lacking and a query mark over Ponga they once more look effectively up in opposition to it right here, in addition they have a really poor face to face report shedding 13 of the final 15 and the final 3 by 30 level or extra margins.

I can’t get the the sport out to 12 or past, I proceed to suppose the Roosters are venerable week in week out and for mine not a assured Line betting proposition. I anticipate they win, joyful to go away it at that.

-32.5 Cowboys v Storm – Townsville

Floor: Townsville
51.5 Whole Factors (market place)

Storm are resting Munster, Kaufusi, Finucane. I anticipate with the return of Papenhuyzen they can even have the choice of resting Hughes and shifting Hynes to #7 in the event that they achieve this. With Papenhuyzen in addition they get Welch, Asofa-Solomona and Addo-Carr again this week, not dangerous depth.

We’ve got the benchmark crew of the comp who’ve received their final 14 straight, 13 of these by 16 pt or extra margins up in opposition to a backside of desk opponent who over the past 5 weeks in shedding 5 straight have additionally been providing the more severe defence within the competitors. The Storm have high quality and depth, robust combos which ever manner they line up and are so dependable nearly ever week (as their report reveals) to show up, roll their sleeves up and get on with the enterprise. I anticipate extra of the identical right here, even with teh adjustments I used to be at all times no less than 32 to 34 between them initially of the week and will effectively justify having it larger.

The Storm have the very best defence, and have rattled up 40 pts 12 occasions already this season. They beat the Roosters 46-0 just a few weeks in the past, 48-4 final week and put 66 by the Tigers. It appears a decisive win right here for mine.

-17.5 Rabbits v Warriors – Sunshine Coast

Floor: Sunshine Coast
51.5 Whole Factors (market place)

Rabbits are with out Johnson, importantly get Mitchell again and Arrow within the center. Warriors have a lit of main outs together with Tuivasa-Sheck, Harris, Egan and Berry.

The issue with the Rabbits is that they’re unreliable in motivation and starvation from week to week in wanting to essentially put their foot down for 80 minutes and carry out at or close to their greatest? On paper it is extremely straightforward to mark them 18 to twenty level favs right here in opposition to a weakened opponent on a major shedding streak, and that they need to be (-20.0) – however the Rabbits have solely lined the road at 3 of the final 13 events the place they’ve been -10.0 or larger, clearly value staying away from at current. They secret’s their motivation, and choosing the time once we suppose they’re up and have one thing to play for ie in opposition to an arch rival and or a prime of the desk match up or recreation with key desk final result challenge.

Warriors have now misplaced 8 of their final 9 and on the again of all of those harm outs are in deep poo proper now. They had been proper within the recreation final week and main / difficult the Panthers and regarded like giving that an actual shake till harm hit they usually misplaced 4 key gamers within the run into half time, after which simply couldn’t measure up within the second half (for apparent purpose, but did exceptionally effectively to carry the sport again from a blow out). They are going to be again to 17 right here, however these 4 outs are key gamers and weaken them considerably.

Count on Rabbits win. If they’re half severe they cowl the road, with the important thing ins and expertise they’ve they need to effectively try this anyway, however I’m joyful to remain out.

-17.5 Eagles v Tigers – Brisbane

Floor: Brisbane
52.5 Whole Factors (market place)

Suncop Stadium, 5.30pm, dry observe, appears large attacking and open footy match up right here. Eagles get all of the weapons again this week, each Trbojevic brothers, Cherry-Evans after which extra key forwards Aloiai and Gosiewski – that’s 5 very key ins. Tigers just about stay the identical as final week.

Whereas I’m not as vast as 20.0 right here on paper, identified efficiency, strike and defence weak spot there’s definitely a niche. What we do know in regards to the Tigers is they’re very flakey and haven’t aimed up when beneath any expectation or focus in opposition to the nice groups (like this match up). And lets be frank, they had been behind by 10 factors at half time final week to the sixteenth positioned crew, and however for his or her opponents disgraceful second half defensive providing may effectively have been in some actual bother. I feel the sport and win end result has little depth. Of their 3 video games prior in opposition to contenders on the prime of the desk they had been weak, Rabbits, Storm and Eels simply proudly owning them. I’m positive there can be patches right here the place they compete, however onerous to see them sustaining that in a successful place for 80 minutes.

As we already know the Eagles are only a completely different gravy when Tom performs, then this week add to that the extra key ins and all however again to full energy line up they usually look a really formidable, robust and attacking crew. In addition they look to get all of the circumstances to play, dry observe, clear arvo, 5.30pm recreation time and a defensive providing that may leak and or shortly fold.

An Eagles 20 level win wouldn’t shock, however this recreation does look to have factors throughout it and I believed that regarded one of the simplest ways to play it. I did my numbers on this 3 occasions, and was something like 62 to mid 60’s in whole. The Eagles final 5 outings have seen totals all above 46, with 4 of them at 68, 80, 66 and 50. The Tigers final 4 outings have delivered totals at 52, 82, 60 and 66. The Tigers can rating 20 or so factors, however they constantly leak 30+ in opposition to the higher groups (and 24 final week in opposition to the sixteenth positioned crew). I can’t see how this isn’t effectively over the unique whole place.

-19.5 Panthers v Broncos – Brisbane

Floor: Brisbane
51.5 Whole Factors (market place)

Luai is a really large in for the Panthers this week. Fisher-Harris in some doubt. Broncos leak 32 factors second half final week and stay unchanged?

Whereas nonetheless with out Cleary the Panthers do look a lot better with Luai again. Attention-grabbing that they’ve an enormous large match up subsequent week in opposition to the Storm and the way a lot their eyes and head is on that recreation and extra going by the motions right here, get the win, get the job completed and don’t get injured? That they had their poor moments final week (and the sport prior 13-12 win) however once more get the correct opponent on the base of the desk who’re unlikely to essentially check them and bodily take the sport and strain to them. One factor they’ve completed effectively by latest video games whereas and has been an indicator of their work over the past two seasons has been their defence, they nonetheless solely concede 10 to 12 factors on common every week and once more final week held the Warriors to 16, and lots of occasions late within the first half and thru the second did they flip up time and again on their very own line.

The Broncos are the Broncos, a constructive first half effort final week, lead by 10 at half time (and may have been no less than 4 to 10 extra) after which have a couple of issues go in opposition to them early second half they usually simply fully fold. With Lodge and Pangai now gone they’re ought to on an enormous bodily ahead that may take it to an opponent and set a platform for them to intention up, and lead others ahead, Croft is flakey at #7 and makes many poor selections, Gamble has robust moments however can even over play his hand, they usually have manner too many basic errors.

Panthers ought to be successful, ought to the Broncos as soon as once more roll over then they cowl the road, however I do have some concern on them having their thoughts on subsequent week.

+6.5 Dragons v Titans – Robina

Floor: Robina
51.5 Whole Factors (market place)

Who turns up right here? Dragons have 7 adjustments and a significant (constructive) overhaul of their crew record, they give the impression of being on this as much as their ears. Titans lose Fogarty, Clark and Sami.

My dangerous final week as I obtained the Titans very incorrect. I anticipated they’d all the pieces of their favour, at residence, week of residence prep, off constructive away win, opponent having key outs and a plus underdog place, but they had been utter garbage. Mentally they simply cannot be trusted and you may all however go away me out of them for the weeks if not months to return. Sure they’d a key sin bin in opposition to them (horrible choice) however they had been already rolling over, no angle, no effort to defend key errors and simply have a crack, fully trampled by the center. The Dragons usually are not at that degree, and usually no the place close to as direct or bodily, and off such a shit providing you’d anticipate enchancment. We will wait and see. Fogarty is definitely a loss.

I feel the Dragons had penciled in final week as a troublesome week and a loss and are simply getting on with the job. I feel they probably take the alternative method this week and can be very up and about and provides themselves an important probability on this recreation. The adjustments and ins are all constructive, appears a great robust ahead line up, don’t just like the centres (Beale and Ramsey), however total a a lot a lot better crew than they’ve had for a lot of weeks.

If the sport opens up and defence is simply non-compulsory then the Titans are probably favoured. If the Dragons as they so usually do make this an unattractive arm wrestle then in addition they get their probability. I’d wish to see the Dragons play extra constructive ball play and assault, and perhaps with out Norman and with the adjustments at #6 and Dufty again they will do that. On paper with the Titans at residence I can have them 6 or so factors favs, however it appears a really very tough recreation.

+7.5 Bulldogs v Sharks – Robina

Floor: Robina
49.5 Whole Factors (market place)

It might be the final recreation of the spherical however this one has numerous intrigue throughout it, particularly for mine in and across the Bulldogs. They’ve Marshall-King and Stimson again. Sharks are with out Tolman, and nonetheless have Moylan and Graham out.

Firstly I feel the Bulldogs have been priced wrongly and down too far on shedding and never on effort, their opponents and total formline. With all of that within the dialog and onto a impartial floor I can’t be greater than 6 to eight between them. My rational is as follows: They’ve been deep in and or received at 4 of their final 5 video games together with the constructive win over the Dragons. The sport they had been flogged they’d 5 or extra outs and skinny bench depth and had been right into a hiding to nothing recreation in opposition to the Eagles. After they have had their greatest or close to greatest crew record accessible they’re aggressive and have had a crack. They had been deep into the sport in opposition to the Eels and had some key selections go in opposition to them early second half, had the Roosters 16 all with 8 minutes to go two video games in the past after which final week had been neck and neck with the Rabbits with 10 to go and blew any probability resulting from their very own error and poor play. And sure they’ve that in them, however they’re much better in effort and execution now than they had been months in the past. This now could be the very best ahead line up they’ve fielded for months with solely Elliott lacking, with the luxurious of three large middles, good edge, and higher bench depth particularly with Simson added to Napa and Ogden. Marshall-King is a really constructive in, he has potential, now provides them one thing at #9 and may make little issues occur particularly along with his again up play. They sit final on the desk for a purpose however I feel their latest kind is best than it appears and it is a much better crew record than they’ve had for a lot of weeks.

The Sharks may also be the correct opponent for them this week. Misplaced 2 of their final 3 and the win was over the shedding streak Warriors, they usually fell away very poorly in a low recreation final week to a weakened record Raiders to leak 34. With no Graham and or Moylan they is perhaps missing that tough fringe of management and wish to win, and perhaps are again to simply going by the motions? The loss to the Broncos was credible in a good recreation of footy, however it nonetheless appears a skinny kind line, and the Bulldogs first win of this season was in opposition to them again in Rd7 when the Bulldogs had been the throughout city away customer.

From the outset I believed the +12.5 was too large and the correct solution to play the sport. With then the named groups and particularly the Bulldogs two ins I give them an excellent probability of the upset. It’s the Bulldogs, by no means rolled gold good issues, however I do suppose they get every week the place they are going to give themselves an actual probability and provides the upset an actual shake.

Longer Time period Advisable Wager Checklist

Wager 6 models Storm to win Premiership $2.60
Clearly now the benchmark and the one to beat, Panthers prone to have long term harm questions over Cleary (shoulder) and Luai (knee), Storm have key depth, confidence and high quality combos

Wager 3 models Eagles to make Prime 4 $5.00
Assume the worth is manner too excessive, Eagles have a really comfortable run residence with solely 2 video games vs Prime 4 contenders then an additional 10 vs backside 8 sides/contenders. Clearly they’re very reliant on the health of Tom Trbojevic which is factored into the chances and my wager, but when he performs most of those video games they provide this an enormous shake

Wager 3 models Raiders to overlook Prime 8 $2.00 Topsport $1.95 Tab
Misplaced 5 straight and may have been beat by sixteenth positioned Bulldogs final week, not a cheerful crew from all the pieces I hear, suppose backside of the 8 will get very aggressive in second half of the yr and must take them on

Wager 4 models Panthers Minor Premiers $3.30 Topsport
Market can also be accessible at Tab and Sportsbet $3.00
Undefeated after 3 rounds, high quality longer residence report and have depth in key positions, my numbers proper now recommend they now seem as $2.00 probability

Wager 5 models Titans prime QLD crew $1.77 Topsport
Market can also be accessible at Ladbrokes $1.75 and Sportsbet $1.67
We’ve got a small curiosity speculator on Titans Prime 4, suppose it is a constructive solution to cowl our stake long term. Three manner contest, what we’re betting is the ultimate desk place between Titans and Cowboys and I’m assured on the Titans development late final yr (received final 5 video games), key signings, constructive off season + high quality coach that that is the correct play. Ought to Cam Smith flip up mid season as I anticipate then icing on the cake!

Wager 6 models Storm Prime 4 $1.85
Seems to be a superb long term anchor wager, Bellamy’s report of prime 4 finishes every season is unparalleled, as is his potential to interchange gamers and produce his crew again to the highest. They’ll win close to 90% of residence video games (Melb or Sunshine Coast), have close to the very best D as soon as once more and sure end prime two.

Wager 3 models Broncos most losses $5.00
Anticipated / charge them nearer to $2.00, this value appears very very beneficiant. The squad is weaker than final yr (they usually completed with the spoon), begin the season with key harm outs, query mark on whether or not Coach is as much as this job and have a tough draw.

Wager 2 models Titans to make Prime 4 $4.50
Assume the Coach is high quality, began to place his imprimatur in them late into the season with some very constructive and thrilling play/outcomes. They’ve bought astutely, prime 4 is perhaps a attain (it can save you prime 8 at $1.85 if you want) however I simply see a) lot of up facet and b) a comp with potential lengthy tail. They appear the crew with the flashing pink gentle for me this season. There’s some $5.00 accessible in some locations.

Market Odds Comparability – a fast hyperlink to help with the accessible odds throughout many doable suppliers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The really helpful models wager is indicated subsequent to every wager within the above wager record. The bottom wager is 1 to five models (and can also be a mirrored image of confidence. Everybody chooses to wager in several wager sizes, from differing betting banks (the non-public funds they put apart for betting). Some will wager $20 per wager, some $200 per wager. In order to maintain issues easy and clear for everybody to comply with we then speak in wager models. Our recommendation is to determine what measurement betting unit is prone to be just right for you and name this your betting unit, remembering that you’ll have approx. 5 to 10 models of really helpful outlay per week per sport and that you just additionally run the chance of shedding.

Recreation Notes Preparation: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night time video games lately it’s now close to unimaginable with the work and record of issues that I selected to do to have all recreation previews written and completed till late in every week or early Saturday am. With the ultimate crew lists not introduced till Tuesday afternoon, which I then re charge in opposition to (present efficiency, key ins and outs / closing crew lists after which look to handicap every up coming recreation then take into account a variety of kind and match up components in the direction of closing potential bets and written recreation previews. Briefly with crew lists introduced late Tuesday that then leaves two days to work by these duties. I’ll focus the primary preview notes at any recreation that has a really helpful wager in order that any key components and reasoning is then identified upfront, after which be working by every recreation there after so as of day and time (from Thursday onward).

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